High altitude balloons (HABS) or airships (HAA) can be used for more than just surveillance. In fact, they could be (and have been) used as offensive weapons.

Credit: Chase Doak, 2/1/2023. Over Billings, Montana.

China’s explanation for the HAA currently (2/3/2023) loitering over the US is that it is a stray airship for meteorological study that has been blown off course. This may very well be true, but the timing of the event, and its size (around 120 feet in diameter) makes this claim dubious — the largest weather balloons are usually no more than 20 feet in diameter.

If this is not a “spy balloon,” what could it be? Some of the most concerning possibilities for HAA use:

  1. An airship carrying one or more thermonuclear weapons. An HAB or an HAA could be an ideal platform to sneak attack with a nuclear weapon — especially those that are optimized to produce an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP). A nuclear explosion high in the atmosphere would produce an EMP that could destroy a large swathe of the US electrical grid. The Congressional EMP Commission’s report states:

“EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.”

2. A biological warfare dispersal system.

3. A drone swarm mothership (imagine a swarm like those seen in professional drone shows, except they are all kamikaze drones; see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma3ya_lqCLM). Another possibility: an HAA could be used to release very small surveillance drones that self-destruct or surreptitiously implant into electronic infrastructure.

4. An electronic warfare platform to disrupt communications, radar, etc.

5. A psychological operation to create general disruption or distraction from some other maneuver. Or perhaps to distribute propaganda (though this seems unlikely). A further psychological consideration is that doing this kind of incursion from time to time creates a “boy who cried wolf” effect, which may lower an adversary’s guard for a possible offensive use at a later date.

I do not consider the above possibilities to be highly probable, but they are concerning nonetheless.

Most likely this is an electronic espionage HAA.

Many have asked why China would need “spy balloons” if they have satellites. Some reasons:

  1. Satellites cannot intercept all terrestrial radio signals, and the Chinese government is very curious about US radio chatter right now — considering the current geopolitical situation and the increasing tensions over the Taiwan issue.
  2. A surveillance HAA of this sort would provide greater resolution intelligence imagery of airfields, missile silos, etc.
  3. Spy satellites only have a short window of opportunity in their orbit to view, adversaries can “time” spy satellites and predict when it is concealable to do things like move materiel.
  4. HAA / HAB may evade some radar system capabilities by flying above the detection ceiling.

Time will tell what type of HAA or HAB this is (the US is likely going to shoot it down over the ocean — though any sensitive hardware will have self-destructed before this), however, its use sends a clear signal and reveals a potential weakness in the armor of US defensive capabilities.